Views: 3 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-11-13 Origin: Site
The market situation of large granular urea took a sharp turn for the worse this week, as supply increased and suppliers cut prices to stimulate demand, but market trading activities were limited, and most end users were waiting to see prices stabilize after falling.
Price levels for prilled urea in the Middle East and the Baltic are stable relatively, and IPL tenders will be held early next week. However, the weaker international trends have pulled down spot urea prices in the Middle East to $355-365/ton FOB, and prilled urea in the Baltic to $320-330/ton FOB. Prices in Southeast Asia fell to $360-365/ton FOB, and Egypt's FOB prices to Europe fell to $355-367/ton.
In the west of Suez, Dangote in Nigeria may sell two cargoes at $330/ton FOB, which will be shipped next week. Price levels into Brazil have fallen sharply, falling to $345-360/t CIF, while prices at Nora have fallen further to $307-318 per short ton FOB.
Market Factors
Urea sales in India become slow: The latest provisional data show sales of 2.32 million tonnes in October is down from 2.37 million tonnes a year ago, but production has fallen to 2.58 million tonnes from 2.85 million tonnes a year ago. Stocks stood at around 7.8 million tonnes at the end of October.
Fundamentals mixed: Gas prices remain high in Europe, but a stronger dollar following the US election will weigh on commodity prices. US corn futures rose, but wheat prices were largely unchanged.
30-60 Day Outlook: Urea keep decline in Further
Urea prices will fall further in the short term as the market searches for a bottom to stimulate demand. India’s IPL tender will offer producers a premium net rebate next week, enabling importers to prepare the tonnage they need for West Coast purchases. If producers commit to supply close to a million tonnes of urea in the tender, then this should help stabilize the market and provide an opportunity for the next round of purchases.
