Views: 3 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-06-30 Origin: Site
The urea market experienced another unforgettable week. Tensions in the Middle East escalated significantly following US airstrikes on Iran on June 22nd, driving substantial price surges throughout Friday and the weekend. Fears of potential Iranian retaliation and the possibility of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz marked the market's peak.
However, retaliation was contained, and a ceasefire later on Monday ended the 12-day conflict. As the truce alleviated anxieties, prices retreated rapidly. Despite this decline, urea levels remained higher than pre-conflict prices. Concurrently, India's RCF launched a urea tender.
Price volatility was pronounced, reflecting the peaks seen earlier in the week when conflict persisted, followed by the subsequent fall. Middle East granular urea spot prices were assessed at $435-490 FOB. Higher trade levels reported at over $490 FOB Oman and up to $525 FOB fell outside the assessment window. As of writing, Southeast Asian granular urea FOB prices stood at $452-470. Liquidity dried up in North Africa, with Algeria touching a high of $530 FOB late last week.
**Market Drivers:**
1. **New Indian RCF Urea Tender:** Following no additional acceptances from NFL's June 12th counteroffers, RCF issued a new tender. Closing on July 7th, the importer seeks 2 million metric tons for shipment by August 22nd, split equally between the West and East Coasts.
2. **Egyptian & Iranian Urea Production Restarts:** Producers in Egypt and Iran are restarting plants. Market participants estimate total lost urea production in recent weeks at around 500,000 metric tons.
**30-60 Day Outlook: Volatility Not Over Yet**
As the market seeks balance, prices may readjust lower. However, strong fundamentals, underpinned by Indian demand, suggest a bottom is not far off. A rebound could be sharp, and Chinese exports will be a key factor.
