Urea prices continue to decline

This week, sufficient supply continued to depress prices, especially in the West.

 Due to the efforts of traders and producers to ensure sales, the price of large granular urea in the European and American markets and the Middle East market fell by 10%.

 The decline in the Asian market was small, mainly because the order demand in Southeast Asia and the high domestic prices in China reduced its export potential.

 At present, India's bidding is expected to be at the end of February at the earliest, which is crucial for stabilizing the market that originally oversupplied, because it may absorb about a quarter of the tradable supply this month.

 market factors

 Indian bidding time: The market generally expects that India will postpone the next spot bidding, which increases the bearish sentiment of market participants.

 European natural gas price: Although the price of nitrogen fertilizer has dropped by 40% since September, the relative decline in the price of natural gas in Europe means that the supply has not decreased during this period. The current level of natural gas price indicates that it may decline further.

 30-60 day outlook

 instable

 The market demand in February was insufficient to support the price of urea. Traders and importers are mostly pessimistic, and prices will continue to be under pressure before demand emerges. Having said that, the relative nervousness of bears and the price of urea are quite attractive in history. Once confidence recovers, the market may quickly reverse.