Views: 15 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-09-06 Origin: Site
Urea prices rose again this week, but less than last week due to slowing demand at all levels.
Prices are generally high and chaotic - the price difference from one region to the next is as high as $370/t.
European urea prices are still among the highest in the world, but the range is wide, reflecting different purchasing options, with most markets around $840-900/t cfr, but some lower.
There is new liquidity at FOB levels in Southeast Asia – $670-710/t FOB – but there is little demand in the region and these cargoes will be shipped outside the region.
Demand in the Americas market has fallen as prices have risen, and there is little sign of competition with Europe for tonnage.
market factors
European gas crisis
In Europe, natural gas prices fell 25-30% on such a weak backdrop, offsetting some of the rebound, although there was no sign that European fertilizer production was increasing.
US dollar strengthens
The dollar hit new highs against a variety of currencies this week, denting the purchasing power of some importers but strengthening the agricultural economy of many grain exporters.
30-60 Day Outlook
High prices may already be in the process of curing them. Even in Europe, few markets are currently willing to pay close to $900/t FOB, and markets outside Europe are not. Prices appear to consolidate at slightly lower levels in the short term as traders profit from old positions - but the market remains undersupplied and vulnerable to a surge in demand.
