International Urea Prices Drop Further

Especially in the Suez movement, due to limited offshore trading activities, prices in most destination markets in the Americas have generally declined. In March, U.S. barge prices fell to over 380 per ton FOB,while the price level forlarge granular urea in Brazil trended towards 380 per ton FOB,while the price level for large granular urea in Brazil trended towards 420-425 per ton CFR. In Central America, Incofe held a tender for large granular urea at 430 per ton CFR,including freigh ttomultiple Atlantic ports,with shipment scheduled for April.Meanwhile,Nigeria′s Dangote company appears to have sold two batches of 30,000 tons ofurea,with the offer dropping to 430 per ton CFR,including freight to multiple Atlanticports,with shipment scheduled for April.Meanwhile,Nigeria′s Dangote company appears to have sold two batcheso f30,000 to nsofurea,with the offer dropping to 415 per ton FOB Lekki.

Indonesia's Kaltim canceled a urea tender, with the highest bid at the lower end of 410 per ton FOB,while the offer level in Bontang was about 410 per ton FOB,while the offer level in Bontang was about 430 per ton FOB. There were no new spot sales in the Middle East or Egypt, but Iran's Pardis sold two batches of 30,000 tons of goods at $385.3 per ton FOB, with shipment scheduled for late March to early April. Iran's production is expected to increase from late next week, as the country's production has been largely stagnant since early December.

2.Market Factors
Awaiting Indian Tender: India is entering the off-season before urea consumption picks up in May-June. The country could increase its urea inventory by over 2 million tons from mid-February's 4.8 million tons to 7 million tons or more by the end of May without another tender during March-May. However, by the end of May last year, inventory levels exceeded 11 million tons, and a tender may occur in the first half of March.
30-60 Day Outlook: Volatile
Although urea prices are falling without Indian competition and U.S. sourcing options are increasing, importers cannot relax and still need to increase import sources for March-April. The release of an Indian tender will tighten the market again, but Iran's resumption of production and softer European gas prices will start to pull down urea prices in April.