Views: 5 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-03-19 Origin: Site
Urea Prices Gradually Declining
The persistent absence of Indian tenders has dampened market sentiment, leading to a decline in urea prices by 10−15 per ton or more inmost markets.The spot price for large granules in the Middle Easthas fallen to10−15 per ton or more in most markets.The spot price for large granules in the Middle Easth as fallen to390-400 per ton FOB, reflecting the latest bids and offers, but with limited transactions. The FOB price in Southeast Asia has also dropped to the same level. However, producers in both regions remain largely on the sidelines, anticipating the re-emergence of demand from expected Indian tenders. Buyers in Southeast Asia have lowered their bids to below $410 per ton CFR. Most factories in Iran have resumed production, and exports are expected to return to regular levels by April.
As of the time of writing, prices in Egypt to Europe have dropped to around $410 per ton FOB, with prices in Algeria similarly trending lower. Supplies from the Black Sea region are also expected to increase due to the resumption of production in Azerbaijan. There have been no new sales from Nigeria.
The price of small granular urea in the Baltic region has fallen below 360 per ton FOB,while the price of large granular urea temporarily remains above 360 pe rton FOB. The barge price in the United States has dropped to 380−385pertonFOB,reflectinglevelsforMarchandApril,whereasthepriceoflargegranularureainBrazilhasdecreasedto380−385pertonFOB,reflectinglevelsforMarchandApril,whereasthepriceoflargegranularureainBrazilhasdecreasedto390-
405 per ton CFR.
Market Factors
Stronger Natural Gas and Euro: The near-month natural gas futures price at the Dutch TTF hub rose from €38.2/MWh a week ago to €40.6/MWh. Meanwhile, the euro continues to strengthen against the US dollar, reaching €1 to $1.09. Both factors support import purchasing in Europe.
Increased Producer Supply: Slowed trading activity in recent weeks has limited FOB business, while supply from all major production regions is increasing in April. Shipments for this month remain concentrated in Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria.
30-60 Day Forecast: Volatility
There remains a possibility that an Indian tender could emerge soon. Should a tender materialize, the global supply balance could tighten significantly in April, potentially prompting buyers from Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Thailand to enter the market following India's lead.
