Views: 7 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-07-24 Origin: Site
The market is mainly focused on the final results of India's IPL urea bidding, as well as the shutdown and resumption of production of multiple factories in Egypt, while the United States held an important large-scale conference at the same time.
India IPL company confirmed the purchase contract for urea in the tender on July 8th and issued a letter of intent for 434000 tons to the supplier. Meanwhile, Egypt experienced supply issues this week, with three factories shutting down on Tuesday and two resuming production on Wednesday. NCIC has sold two batches of 5000 tons of granular urea at offshore prices of $362/ton and $367/ton respectively, with shipping dates at the end of July. The prices are lower than the offshore prices of $380/ton and above offered by other suppliers in the market earlier this week.
The price of granular urea in Brazil has increased to a landed price of $360-365 per ton slightly, with a low-end price increase of $5 per ton, but overall trading activity is limited. After the bidding in India ended last week, the price of Nora increased significantly, with offshore prices ranging from $300 to $308 per short ton.
The market factors
Tightening supply in the Middle East: Middle Eastern producers dominate India's main supply, almost holding a share of all contracts, which will tighten potential sources for shipments next month.
Crop prices have fallen: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's futures contracts have fallen below $4 per bushel recently, putting pressure on end customers' purchases, especially in the Americas. The offshore price of wheat in the Black Sea European region has also dropped to around $210 per ton.
Outlook for 30-60 days: currently firm, expectations weak
The urea inventory in India has dropped from around 11 million tons at the end of June to around 10 million tons, and another tender may appear in August, but the capacity to bear it limits the demand in the main market. The goods scheduled for August may still experience a price surge, especially east of Suez, due to the lack of exports from China. However, there should be more supply in the market in September, and prices may be weaken.
