Views: 12 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-08-17 Origin: Site
Prices collapsed this week, with small gains in some regions and declines in others.
Several demand points in Central and South America emerged this week - notably Argentina, Peru and Mexico - but prices in Brazil fell below $650/t cfr as suppliers chased buyers.
There is a small amount of granular urea trading in India, but the next major tender appears to be at least two weeks away.
Spreads are widening in some regions, reflecting inconsistent demand and disruptions to trade flows. In Europe, Baltic buyers are paying around $100/t more than Black Sea buyers. Likewise, in the Black Sea region, there is a spread of close to $150/t between the prices realized by some Turkmenistan suppliers in Turkey and the idea of buyer prices for urea from Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan entering other markets.
market factors
low demand
Brazil, US, China, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe - these major markets have limited demand for urea, which has kept running prices stagnant over the past few weeks.
European energy crisis
Natural gas prices remain at record highs and Europe's massive fertilizer plants are at risk of further shutdowns. This continues to support a rise in European urea prices, which in turn attracts tonnage from many non-traditional sources.
30-60 Day Outlook
Without another major market stepping in to buy urea in bulk, the market could soften, as it did after the previous two big price hikes. But with the natural gas market showing no signs of easing, prices are likely to surge again.
