International urea market outlook in April

Besides China, urea prices remained stable or slightly higher this week.

Importers accepted increased freight at higher levels of cfr, Brazil paid up to $400/ton for cfr this week. Sales in the Middle East and Egypt in April showed that prices have hardly changed, but it certainly not going to decline.

After the shutdown in February, it took much longer than expected for US, and the nitrogen market was in short supply. The price of ammonia and UAN rose this week, urea’s price began to follow up.

China's FOB fallen to around US$340/MT. The increase production and the release of winter stocks led to a market decline. Although the domestic market may fall, India will provide support.

United States: US seemed to be short of urea sincehalt production,UAN and ammonia. Prices will rise to attract import.

India: Moderate sales in February mean sufficient inventory. The date of next tender was postponed to the end March.

China: Prices fallen, Chinese urea is now the most competitive price in the world,  the delay in the Indian tender may cause further pressure.

Suppliers outside of China will maintain prices. Strong pull from the US, AU should support prices.