Views:16 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2019-09-27 Origin:Site
India buys 950,000 tons, but the price response is dull
According to the latest tender, MMTC has successfully purchased nearly 1 million tons of urea from the Middle East, Indonesia, the Black Sea and China. But there has been no price reaction.
Although the cfr price has risen slightly in some markets, it is entirely due to the increase in freight prices driven by rising oil prices. The level of FOB has barely changed. Middle East urea is sold to India at a price of US$254-260/ton FOB. The FOB price of urea in China and Indonesia is US$260/ton. Yuzhny is about $240/ton fob.
Net income is to support the current price level, but will not push the FOB higher.
Brazil is currently the main indicator for determining whether prices are rising. The Cfr level has been from $278-280 per ton last week, slightly above $280, which reinforces the view that the market as a whole is flat.
India: High sales in August indicate that 2 million urea will be needed by January next year.
Brazil: Demand in the peak season has begun, prices should be firm, but progress is slow.
Europe: Buyers are paying attention to developments, but should come back to buy more large-grain urea in mid-October.
30-60 days outlook
Large granular urea from the Baltic Sea has some pressure, but urea from other sources is safe until mid-October. Prices have not changed much in the short term, but may gradually strengthen in November.