Views:0 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2018-12-17 Origin:Site
At present, the price of urea has dropped by about US$60/ton from the high price in mid-October, but there is still no indication that this weak situation has ended. As the market is still weak, downstream customers are not sourcing, and some suppliers in several regions are still looking for purchasers.
Urea prices in the Middle East and Egypt have fallen to $280/tonne FOB this week. Since October, it has fallen by 20%. According to common sense, it will attract some buyers, but most believe that the market will stabilize at least until January.
Due to limited demand, it is difficult to prevent prices from declining. This situation will be eased in South Asia and Europe in next January, and prices will fall further before this. Therefore, manufacturers will flexibly adjust prices according to actual conditions.
In India's MMTC's urea import list on November 14, traders have identified 1.22 million tons of vessel loading, totaling 1.81 million tons. The FAI meeting held in New Delhi, India last week basically reached a consensus, India will be re-purchased in January. The purchase volume about 600,000-800,000 tons, may be released in the first half of January.
Market influence factor
Bearish sentiment remains the main price driver. In the first quarter shipments of Sri Lanka and Ethiopia, the FOB price of the Middle East is about US$280/ton.
Buyers expect lower prices and are therefore waiting to see. Turkey and Brazil are buying urea, but few other markets are positive in the West. Christmas started very early in Southeast Asia.
In January, strong demand for urea in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal could reverse the current price decline. India’s demand is the key, but remains to be confirmed.
30-60 days outlook
According to current trends, the FOB price in the Middle East, Egypt and the Baltic Sea is approaching $270/ton, and the increase in demand in January has brought some stability.