India's urea bid makes the price rising

India's MMTC is close to 1.3 million tons, confirming the process of global price rise. Suppliers in eastern and western Suez benefited from selling at prices unmatched in other CFR markets. Suppliers in the Middle East have reached FOB US$282/ton, the net price in the Black Sea is about US$250/ton, and sellers in the Baltic Sea was about FOB US$240/ton.

 Either it is due to the peak season, or India’s development priority , and liquidity in other regions is weak. In France, purchases slowed, but prices have remained the same after large sales in Egypt last month. Due to tight supply, US barge prices have stalled this week.

 India needs time to decide when to step again, which will cool the market. But early signs of demand emerged in Australia, and strong buying in the US expected in the first quarter, should prevent a sharp price correction.

 India will stop for a moment: Rabi estimates that it still needs to import 700,000 to 1.2 million tons of urea. But the slowdown in domestic sales will cause the Department of Fertilizer to suspend, until the next round of tenders launched.

 China could still to export: India had already occupied export positions before it’s bid, and now it  needs to be transferred to other places or sold at a loss. The delay before the next Indian bid may add more pressure.

  Let's warm up in the first quarter: the uptrend has stalled, due to supply shortages in the first quarter, prices may rise, attracting spring spot.