Urea market rises against the trend

Urea prices rose by more than $100/t in many major areas this week as traders covered short positions and added to positions against the backdrop of the European crisis.

In many of transactions this week, the trading price of granular urea in the Middle East was as low as $493/ton FOB and as high as $615/ton FOB. In the Black Sea, Central Asian urea traded from $450/t fob to around $595/t fob. In Egypt, transaction prices started at $650 fob and then surged to $765/t fob.

However, not every market is active. Even before price increasing, the demand in Southeast Asia was still very low, and buyers in Brazil were slow to respond.

Selling is strong at the moment, but maybe it require other markets to step in to sustain.

The market factors

European gas prices

Natural gas prices forced many urea plants in Europe to close, and the remaining nitrate plants raised prices substantially. Both imply a substantial increase in the amount of urea purchased from Europe.

The delayed demand

No matter because of the crisis (e.g. Sri Lanka) or by choice (e.g. Mexico), buyers in many markets held off buying when the market was weak, and now that the direction has reversed, they are stepping in to fill - absorbing a lot of the market's previous length.

Outlook for 30-60 Days

The supply crisis in Europe shows few signs of abating, which should boost regional demand, but maybe buyers in many other markets put off because of the higher prices. How this balance could lead to further volatility.