Urea market is weak and prices are gradually declining

Due to sluggish demand, urea prices in most regions have fallen this week, partly due to seasonal issues. Another part of the reason is that people believe that prices may further decline.

Large particle urea, with a bulk price of CFR350 USD/ton this week, is far lower than the level in other regions, which has raised questions about when peak season demand will start to purchase. The Iranian manufacturer has cancelled the bid instead of accepting a FOB310 USD/ton price. India's sales in August have been consistently high, an increase of 600000 tons compared to last year, indicating that bidding may take place in September.

However, bears point out the growth of China's production, reaching a record high of 30.79 million tons in the first half of 2023. This year's production is expected to exceed 60 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from 2022, and more exports are allowed.

market factors

Brazil: The main destination market for unsold urea, with poor feedback. Corn prices and short selling mean that buyers are unwilling to participate.

China: Currently, the domestic market is strong. The increase in production indicates that exports may remain high in the fourth quarter.

Egypt: Producers avoided lower quotations this week, but will soon have to sell the remaining tonnage from September to the sluggish European market.

This weak tone will continue until September, until more demand emerges, and prices will show a downward trend in the coming month. But the coincidence of demand from Brazil, India, and Europe in the fourth quarter should prevent the decline.