Urea Rising Again, Focus Turning to India

Amidst strong import demand and tight supply, urea prices have once again risen significantly.

 

Latin America is the most active import market, with approximately 100000 tons of large particles traded at CFR440-450 US dollars per ton in Brazil, while large particles traded in Chile and Argentina are priced at approximately CFR4455-455 US dollars per ton, with quantities exceeding 60000 tons.

 

In the middle of this week, the price of urea in the United States plummeted by about $30 per ton, and in September, the barge price dropped to $375 (CFR408) per ton, freezing most transactions in the entire American market. Although in a non seasonal cycle, transaction activity is still moderate, with a trade volume of 45000 tons for barges and 20000 tons for CFR.

 

Middle Eastern producers sold several batches of large granular urea at FOB prices this week, while Iran sold 95000 tons at FOB prices of $380-385 per ton, which is approximately $45-50 per ton higher than last week. Fertiglobe sold 30000 tons of UAE granular urea at an FOB price of $411.5 per ton, approximately $11.5 per ton higher than last week.

 

By the middle of this week, transaction volume has significantly slowed down, and it is expected that transactions will remain relatively scarce until the results of next week's Indian procurement bidding become clear.

 

market factors

 

Nora urea prices: The weakness of Nora urea prices indicates that prices in Latin America are at a higher level, leading to a stagnation of trade in the region.

 

Indian bidding: Chinese prices have risen again due to traders adjusting their positions before India, and China's supply will play a crucial role.

 

30-60 day outlook: instability

 

The tension between supply and demand is easing, but the risks remain high due to India's demand, the fragility of the natural gas market, and the uncertainty of China's export policies.