The international compound fertilizer market

Most active markets in Europe and India

Most of the NPK suppliers are on the sidelines as market participants continue to digest and evaluate the growing list of sanctions against Russia. But the buying from India and some European countries has been strong this week. In India, an importer bought 30,000 mt of Saudi 20-20-0-135 at $682/t cfr unpaid, while trader Aqrifields has sold 25,000 mt of South Korean 16-20-0+135 to Indian buyers. In Europe, NPK prices have surged as buyers continue to snap up productsin the start of spring amid fears of supply shortages. In Germany, the latest sales were at $765/t, but the fresh sales offers are at $770/t and even higher now. This compares with selling at E630-660/t at FCA seaport last week.

Market Drivers

Russia restrict fertilizer exports temporarily

The Russian Ministry of Trade and Industry has decided to temporarily restrict the export of fertilizers to overseas markets, citing logistical problems. But Russia is ready to divert fertilizer exports to interested countries if logistical problems persist.

Ammonia Supply and Natural Gas Affect Compound Fertilizer Costs

Soaring ammonia prices could reduce or stop production at some NPK producers due to tight supplies, while high gas costs have already forced some European nitrogen and ammonia producers to cut output. The manfacture in Poland has announced that the plant has a technical problem that will affect its sales of NPKs. This time comes at a critical moment and will further tighten the supply of NPK in Europe.

Predict

The prices of urea, ammonia, phosphate and potash have all exceeded US$1,000/ton. With the soaring oil prices, NPK production costs have surged, and the costs will inevitably be passed on to customers.