International urea prices rose slowly again

Driven by fears and interests after the interruption of urea supply in Russia this week, international urea prices increased again, but the increasing level was less than the previous period.

Slow international supply liquidity: Traders have limited new positions on an FOB basis and they are more interested in sourcing from importers in end-user markets. It seems that they are more interest in getting off-take from importers in the end-user market.

Prices in Brazil and the United States climbed to $1,000/t cfr, setting new records for both countries. Small batches (duty not paid) trade at around $1,050/t cfr in Argentina.

Markets in Europe, Asia and Africa were quiet - prices continued to rise but trade was little.

The market driven

Russian supply disruptions

Fertilizer and other commodity supplies from Russia still at a risk of Western sanctions, driving up EU ammonia prices and causing many buyers to scramble for limited non-Russian urea.

The food prices

High food prices, linked to disruptions in Black Sea production and supplies, have helped increase the trading range of nitrogen fertilizers.

Outlook for 30-60 Days

Any disruption to the world's largest urea exporter would be significant, but the current price levels are eroding demand - with buyers' risk appetite waning and credit lines tight.

Further increasing of price are entirely possible, but it would exacerbate and accelerate the destruction of demand.