International urea market

Urea decreases, China's exports become clearer

 

The weak demand and news that Chinese exports may start in May have added downward pressure to the loading prices of most origin markets in April. Indonesia's Pupuk sold 25000 tons of urea for the first time, and Pusri's bid price on February 29th was $370 per ton. PIM's inquiry on March 6th was cancelled because no buyer was willing to accept Pusri's price. The level outside the Middle East is under pressure from Chinese news, with the trading price of Oman goods in April being FOB370 USD/ton, and the quotation falling to FOB375 USD/ton. Australia remains the preferred destination.

 

The purchasing volume in Europe is very small, and trading companies are considering shorting products in North Africa in the coming months. The price in Egypt has dropped to FOB370-380 USD/ton in Europe, but the non European destination market is not far from parity and is providing some urgently needed liquidity.

 

The US price supports the high-end markets of the Baltic and Black Seas, with offshore barge prices ranging from $347-400. The CFR level in Brazil has declined due to sluggish demand, dropping to CFR 375-390 USD/ton.

 

market factors

 

The emergence of Chinese policies: Today's latest report shows that producers will be eligible to apply for export quotas starting from March 15th, with an initial inspection period of about 40 working days, and the approval letter will be announced after the end of April.

 

India bidding has arrived: procurement bidding may occur next week, with shipments scheduled for April May. The latest data shows that urea production in February decreased from 2.87 million tons in January to 2.33 million tons.

 

30-60 day outlook: price instability

 

The issuance of procurement bids in India may lead to an increase in the European market for purchasing urea in the spring, but considering China's possible participation, the long delivery window ending in May will be bearish.