International urea market

Liquidity stagnation Price volatility

A month after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the urea market was at a standstill - with limited transactions at high price levels due to the withdrawal of most buyers from the supply chain in most regions.

Urea prices diverged in major regions this week. Prices in the Middle East and the United States rose slightly, Egypt weakened, and Brazil prices were stable.

Sentiment is fragile, with participants appearing to focus more on downside risks than upside risks this week.

Russian urea supplies are more visible on the market than in previous weeks, although freight remains an expensive and time-consuming challenge.

Insufficient demand

Prices are high enough to significantly weaken demand through crop economics and credit/risk constraints. Liquidity has been thin this week, and if it continues, it will drive down prices.

supply constraints

Russia’s nitrogen fertilizer exports have slowed in the wake of Western sanctions, factories in Southeast Asia have come online or are beginning to turn a profit, and production in Europe has fallen behind normal levels after various cost-driven shutdowns.

30-60 Day Outlook

The market is calm and looking for excitement. Given the geopolitical situation, and the impending start of the second-quarter demand peak in the Asia-Pacific region, this may be discovered. But overall, the trend has weakened