International urea market

Stable price in March

 

Producers have promised production in March in several areas and prices are stabilizing. The market recovered calm this week, but it has no effect on prices. Earlier this week, the company carried out two low-priced, large-grand sales, reflecting the FOB price in the Middle East as low as $230/ton.

 

The US market has slightly fallen below FOB Nola $230/ton, while the Brazilian market has remained CFR $250-255/ton.

 

The discussion turned to the outlook for April to May, when the market is expected to turn into oversupply. April and May are months when urea trade is relatively low, and it is unlikely to see any change in 2019.

 

Market driven

 

United States/Brazil

 

The current CFR levels in these two markets are around $250/ton and have not been severely tested. Low demand in March-April may lead to a fall in Brazilian prices. The US market should strengthen in the spring, but no one believes.

 

Low demand in Asia

 

The eastern market is weak. Iran's urea is penetrating into some countries at low prices, while the impact of CPO low prices continues to affect other countries, reducing the demand of importing countries.

 

cautious

 

Most traders expect oil prices to fall in April, but are cautious about aggressive short positions. As price is currently about $20/ton lower than the same period last year.

 

30 - 60 days of prospects

 

Going to be stable

 

The tonnage in March has been sold in key areas and prices remain unchanged until the supplier begins to negotiate shipments in April. But the market may be further weakened.