International Urea Market

Price uncertainty limits trading

This week, prices in markets outside the United States are unknown. Obviously, prices are falling, but in some markets, the speed and magnitude of the decline are unclear.

This uncertainty suppresses demand, and buyers look for price guidance while watching. In India’s bidding process last week, China’s FOB price has dropped to US$335/ton due to concerns about the reduction in the bid amount. Egyptian producers are trying to find buyers for May, at a negotiated price of $fob360-370/ton.

Is this the floor price? India is expected to issue another tender in mid-April. By then, Eastern prices will be supported, while domestic prices in China will remain stable. But the more difficult task facing Egypt is to find a price that will attract European buyers back when traders sell short.

30-60 day outlook

Western markets are adjusting, and prices are expected to fall again in May and June. However, demand in many regions will be strong this year, limiting the downside.