India's list price is lower than expected, urea prices are falling

Due to traders turning to short selling and slowing demand from importers, prices have fallen this week.

The urea bidding in India is the main event of this week, with the lowest prices being $396 per ton for East Coast CFR396 and $399 per ton for West Coast CFR399, which are $15-20 per ton lower than expected and may also limit the tonnage promised by sellers in the coming week.

The net profit from trading to manufacturers in India is much lower than last week, and even earlier this week's business. However, after the Indian bidding, market prices in most regions have declined, and the short-term outlook is weak.

The transaction price of small batches in Brazil has steadily decreased to $CFR415 per ton, a 10% decrease from last week's peak, and the quantity is only half of last week's. In October, the FOB price of Nora in the United States decreased to $350 per ton (CFR380 per ton). Europe is also very calm, with a total demand of only a few thousand tons this week, and the price has dropped to CFR430-435 USD/ton.

New demand has emerged in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Canada, but buyers seem to only want to determine their purchasing needs after understanding the impact of the logo.

Market driven

Chinese exports: The quantity and scale of shipments from China to India, as well as the ease of execution in the coming weeks, will have a significant impact on the overall market balance.

Southeast Asian supply: Indonesia and Brunei's return to the spot market will greatly alleviate the tension in the urea market.

30-60 day outlook: instability

Despite weak market performance in the short term, concerns about winter energy prices may continue to support non seasonal high demand throughout the third quarter.