China's urea exports have surged and prices have fallen

Most urea prices have fallen again this week, with the main progress being China's commitment to a large supply of urea to India.

IPL India has confirmed the purchase of 1.759 million tons of urea, of which over 1 million tons will be shipped from Chinese ports, which far exceeds expectations and exacerbates the already pessimistic sentiment of most market participants.

In addition, market transactions have generally slowed down as importers and traders mostly wait for confirmation of urea bidding in India before conducting new transactions. The prices in most markets have fallen, with the US Gulf falling by $15/ton, Brazil falling by $20/ton, Europe falling by $20/ton, and Southeast Asia falling by $20/ton. Under the pressure of sluggish demand, traders tend to sell short to ensure market liquidity.

market factors

China's urea export: Committed to supplying approximately 1 million tons of urea to India, China exceeded the pre tender estimate of around 800000 tons. Due to the high production profit margins in most regions, if China's exports continue to grow at this rate, the international market may become weak as a result.

Weak fundamentals: Whether it is the food or energy markets, they will not provide much support for market sentiment or fundamental balance in the short term.

With supply returning to normal in Nigeria and Southeast Asia, as well as an increase in China's export volume, the international market is tending towards a surplus situation. However, demand does not seem to be prominent, and traders and importers seem to be generally bearish.