Analysis about China MAP and DAP last week

1.This week, the market for monoammonium phosphate continued its flat trend. Although the raw material phosphate rock was tight and the price of sulfur continued to rise, the company's quotation remained firm. The mainstream price of 55 powder was 2200-2250 yuan/ton, 58 powder 2350 yuan/ton. However, the downstream compound fertilizer is not active in the autumn raw materials, the small factory has not restarted, the volume of new ammonium mono-single is limited, and the market price is low. The powder in Shandong area is about 2,300 yuan/ton, which is a single discussion. The domestic diammonium market continued to be in a tight price trend, and the low-end quotations were delisted one after another. The downstream market sentiment was mainly wait-and-see, and the purchasing intention was not good. The price of phosphate ore in the main producing areas in the southwest was raised, and the cost of diammonium enterprises increased significantly. The positive situation is more obvious. The enterprises are still mainly export-oriented. The international price of diammonium remains at 417-420 US dollars/ton, equivalent to the domestic ex-factory price of 2650-2700 yuan/ton.

2. Supply and demand analysis

The operation of the first ammonium is about 58%, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is still not high; the diammonium is about 57%, the international market is active, and the main business is ship to the port and then export.

3. Market outlook and outlook

We predicts that the upstream atmosphere is active, the downstream demand is weak, and the one-ammonium enterprises are under double pressure. The price will continue to be stable and wait-and-see; driven by diammonium exports, domestic  prices will continue to remain high.