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Urea crash

Views: 22     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-01-19      Origin: Site

Prices tumbled in many markets this week, especially in the U.S. and Brazil, all expected the price decline,which makes the price declining to be reality.

 Asian markets remained calm, but prices were also falling.

US nora prices fell back to $575/t fob, equivalent to a US Gulf CFR of $630/t, this is the lowest price since September 2021.

Offers from Brazilian buyers continued to decline during the week, and sellers' offers were also lower, but trading volumes were limited. Ideal prices are as low as $700/t now, the price declined $100/t over the week.

Overall, buyers remain on the sidelines at most price points in the market, while sellers continue to drive down prices to stimulate demand.

The market driven

The length of the producer's duration

In mid-January, many producers from the Baltic to North Africa and the Middle East still held undetermined loads for the month.

natural gas price

Though the rapid falling of urea prices got the most attention this week, natural gas prices remain high in the historical normal levels, several nitrogen fertilizer plants remain shut down, and  Chinese exports still restricted severely.

Outlook for 30-60 Day

The market is trying to find a point that stimulates demand, thereby rebalancing the market. Prices could fall further, but when a bottom is reached, pent-up demand should emerge quickly.


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