Views: 9 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2020-12-29 Origin: Site
Due to limited supply in the east and strong demand in the west, the urea market will strong by the end of this year. China's output fell, and exports stopped. The supply in Southeast Asiais unstable, Saudi Arabia's Safco may remain in a slump until mid-January, further restricting exports.
Seasonal demand in Brazil caused prices rise to US$280/ton. Egyptian producers sell at FOB US$280/ton, and American barge prices rose again slightly.
After the collapse, production stagnation and shrinking industrial demand, urea prices closed in highe.
By 2020, the fob price in the Middle East and Egypt is about 240 US dollars/ton, and the US barge price is close to 220 US dollars/ton.
As seasonal demand, the US market will become the focus of the first quarter.
Market driven
China's production decline: Argus estimates that urea production has fallen to 12,300 tons/day, a 70% decrease from mid-November. While domestic prices are high, exports have stagnated accordingly.
Egyptian producers remains the price: producers sell at the FOB US$280/ton. and they will find support when early next year.
Indonesia will resume exports: exports will recover soon, and producers will benefit from reduced regional supply competition.
30-60 days prospect
Limiting production will support existing prices, it may allow small increases when demand reappears.
