International urea market

Weak demand drives down international prices

Urea prices fell in most markets this week because of the recent weak international demand and fierce competition from suppliers to ensure supply.

Wet weather dampened the demand outlook and US prices fell sharply at the start of the week - Nora's barges changed hands at $550/t fob.

Urea levels also declined in Brazil as Russian suppliers faced limited marketing options during sanctions, forcing granular urea levels below $650/t cfr.

A series of transactions in Iran have established clear prices for granular urea between $640-665/t fob, with cargoes mainly destined for Brazil, Turkey and Sudan.

India has had a strong start to the monsoon and urea sales have also started to grow: urea sales rose by 400,000 tonnes in May, but local production has also increased significantly to meet this demand.

market factors

sanction

Export trade flows and FOB prices for Russia and Iran continue to reflect different sanctions regimes.

weather

Bad weather in the U.S. continues to weigh on Nora's short-term value as suppliers look to liquidate positions ahead of the summer, while favorable weather in India and Australia should support demand extending into the third quarter.

30-60 Day Outlook

As geopolitical risks slowed the decline in urea prices, traders remained cautious about building large short positions, but overall demand was subdued and supply was ample.