Views:11 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-04-07 Origin:Site
After India cuts the tender amount, the market is weak
In the RCF tender on March 22, India limited production to 800,000 tons, although India received more than 1.3 million tons of orders from suppliers. The country does not need to ship 1.3 million tons of urea in April, and believes that it can be purchased at a lower price in subsequent tenders.
But this move left a considerable tonnage of urea on the accounts of traders, which were mainly purchased from China because they were expected to receive tenders. It will be very difficult to find an alternative market for China's granular urea, and the excess tonnage may put pressure on domestic prices in China.
In fact, the entire market has begun to decline, especially in the West, where the price in Brazil has fallen to $390/ton cfr. The drop in freight rates helps to mask the drop in fob levels. Most of the discussion in this week's trading is about how far the price will fall.
China: At current prices, the huge potential export supply in the second quarter surprised many people and may encourage short selling.
Egypt: May's tonnage was unsold, and the price needs to be revised before buyers intervene. The magnitude of the decline will affect other markets.
30-60 day outlook
Prices are falling, but the balance of supply and demand and crop prices have supported the market, indicating that the decline is limited.