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International Urea ~  India's Impact

Views:13     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2019-07-09      Origin:Site

This week's attention is focud on India, MMTC is buying a lot of urea in India. LOI’s will not be released until July 5, so the exact amount is not certain, but it should be 1.6-1.7 millions tons for the bid on July 1st..


The agreed price between the two parties is FOB $283-284 /ton in the Middle East and FOB $277-280 /ton in China. Delivery continues until mid-August.


The bull market and the bear market have appeared at the same time. On the one hand, China's supply seems to far exceed expectations, and India currently has at least two months of supply capacity. On the other hand, China's urea is committed to mid-August, with a firm support for the price of $275-280/ ton FOB.


Producers that do not export to India face some pressure to lower prices in order to sell in the few remaining active markets.


Market driven


India: India will not exit the market until at least September, which will leave a demand gap in Asia.


China: Traders are expected to import about 1 million tons of urea from China for tenders in India, which means that exports will increase substantially in 2019.


Brazil: The price of non-Iranian urea has fallen, bringing in sales for July and July shipments.


30-60 days outlook


7-August market weakness


Without India, traders will be reluctant to pay current prices for spot goods destined for Latin America and other regions, and prices may be moderately adjusted.



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