Views: 2 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-04-19 Origin: Site
Mark capsized
India's RCF unexpectedly reduced urea procurement bidding on Monday, causing a significant drop in prices and shaking the global nitrogen fertilizer market.
Indian RCF reduced its procurement volume by more than half in the bidding on March 27th, lower than last week's expected 724000 tons, limiting procurement to 340000 tons, disrupting the urea market. In the already weak urea market, this move has triggered a global sell-off.
The latest news shows that the price of large particle urea in the Middle East, Africa, and the United States has dropped to FOB295-310 US dollars per ton, but the ongoing Eid al Fitr holiday has limited trading activity. The price of exports from Egypt to the European market has dropped to FOB310-320 USD/ton, indicating that once the seller returns from the holiday next week, the price will further decline. Nigeria inquired about two batches of goods scheduled for April this week, and the bidding price was suppressed below FOB250 USD/ton.
The price of large granular urea shipped to Brazil west of Suez has dropped to CFR290-300 USD/ton. After news from India spread, the price of Nora's immediate barge fell from $345 per ton on Monday to $40 per ton on Friday, and as of the time of publication, it had fallen to $290 per ton FOB.
market factors
The Eid al Fitr holiday weakens liquidity: Due to the celebration of Eid al Fitr, many major producing countries have almost no transactions and activities are restricted.
Traders short: Trading companies are lowering CFR quotes in major markets, but buyers are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
30-60 day outlook: Weak, but demand will come
There is no significant demand to stop the downward trend. Iranian producers had sufficient goods in April, and Chinese exports will resume in late May. However, as prices continue to decline, demand will begin to emerge, and the temporary lower limit may not be too far away. Australia and Thailand will each experience their final wave in May, with Nora's level stabilizing and the political situation in the Middle East intensifying.
